Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Mavs playoff preview

This will be my thoughts of the Mavs going into the playoffs this year. I will, time permitting, do another post regarding the rest of the league, or possibly 2 with 1 for each conference.




This Mavs team is more prepared to make a run at the title than any in Mavs history, including those of the '80's. They have a superstar that NO ONE in the league can stop. Dirk is the ONLY player in the league in the top 10 in both points(4th) and rebounds(9th). They are the deepest team in the league, with 2 guys coming off the bench that would start for many of the other playoff teams(Stackhouse and Van Horn). The have a viable big man in the middle(Dampier). A well balanced offense and good defense that has showed real stopping power at times late in the season.

There defense is much improved over previous seasons. And was so even before Avery Johnson took over. I love AJ but I do think he is getting just a little too much credit for the way this team is playing. I think it has as much to do with the players as him. The Mavs have never had a center even close to Dampier before and he is making a difference. Josh Howard's ability on defense showed last year but he has gotten even better this year. Jason Terry is defensively an improvement over Nash at the point. Dirk has really stepped up his game in this area. I do think AJ has made an impact but I just think the local media is going crazy with it. There defense has been improved all season. They have blocked 10+ shots in a game 8 times. They are 4th in steals and 7th in blocks. The Mavs are 4th in point differential, scoring 102.5 while giving up 96.8. Another interesting stat they have the best record in the NBA (41-15) since Jason Terry took over as the starting PG on 12/18.

All that being said they do have some problem areas. The biggest of which is that they still really don't have a defensive stopper at the SG/SF position. Josh is improving in this area, but he still gets burned for 40+ too often by the likes of McGrady, Bryant, Lebron, etc.. This could really come to haunt this year. With McGrady in the first round, and if they move on Q. Richardson and Shawn Marion in the second, Ginobli(Don't sleep in him, he is a VERY good player, all-star caliber) in the West finals and in the NBA final probably Wade or Rip Hamilton. In other words every team they will face has a great 2 guard or SF.

They also lack playoff experience. I know that sounds weird for a team that has been in the playoffs for 5 straight years but they do. Terry and Damp have never even sniffed they playoffs. Josh Howard is a second year man, and Stack, Van Horn, and Harris have little to no playoff experience. Avery Johnson has never coached a playoff game, and has only coached 18 games since he became head coach, and had never coached before that.

I'm not really sure how far they can go. I'm confident that they can and should make it to the Western Conf. Finals and could make it to the NBA Finals. The Spurs will be a real test but I think they can beat them. Not sure if they will, but they can. I think that this year will be an experience year. I think they will lose to the Spurs in 7 in the Western Conf. Finals and next year be ready to win it all.

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